Service Predictability

In order to provide a rough indication of Internet service predictability, we use a ping predictability metric developed by Kimberly Claffy of NLANR, but using our ping measurements.

We define:

ping success = 1 - # 100 data byte ping packets lost / total number of 100 data byte ping packets

ping data rate = 2000 bytes / (average response time of 10 consecutive 1000 data byte ping packets)

Then for a set of pings (e.g. all the pings to a given host in one day) we calculate:

s = average(ping success) / max(ping success)

and

r = average(ping data rate) / max(ping data rate)

We scatterplot the daily average/max ratio of packet success(s) versus average/max ratio of data rate(r) for each host.

The results are shown below for 1996 for ESnet nodes, International Nodes, and other North Anerica nodes. In these scatter plots, points towards the top right indicate high predictability. It can be seen that service predictability as seen from SLAC is much higher for ESnet than other nodes.

ESnet jan96 feb96 mar96 apr96 may96 jun96 jul96 aug96 sep96 oct96 nov96 dec96 jan97
International: jan96 feb96 mar96 apr96 may96 jun96 jul96 aug96 sep96 oct96 nov96 dec96 jan97
ISP_Local: jan96 feb96 mar96 apr96 may96 jun96 jul96 aug96 sep96 oct96 nov96 dec96 jan97
North_America_East: jan96 feb96 mar96 apr96 may96 jun96 jul96 aug96 sep96 oct96 nov96 dec96 jan97
North_America_West: jan96 feb96 mar96 apr96 may96 jun96 jul96 aug96 sep96 oct96 nov96 dec96 jan97
  
North America: jan96 feb96 mar96 apr96 may96 jun96 jul96 aug96 sep96 oct96 nov96 dec96 jan97
All: jan96 feb96 mar96 apr96 may96 jun96 jul96 aug96 sep96 oct96 nov96 dec96 jan97


Owner: Les Cottrell and Connie Logg